Continental drift to cause few tremors

There are two things British football fans think about the Africa Cup of Nations. The first is that it isn’t much of a competition. The second is that its impact on the Barclays Premier League is therefore out of proportion to the value it adds. Only one of these things is true.

Dr Henry Stott, Dr Ian Graham and Chen Jin have been looking at the cup and at what it means in England. Their first step was to rank international sides based on results. Then, having added in home advantage, the tournament can be simulated thousands of times to yield the probability of winning the trophy.

Ivory Coast emerge with a 32 per cent chance of being champions, more than twice as much as