First-time voters are shunning the Liberal Democrats, according to a Times data analysis that shows the scale of the long-term challenge facing the party.
Using electoral roll data and the latest polls, the Times Data Team projects that the party will have about 84,000 first-time voters in the general election next year, down from 414,500 in 2010.
The research suggests that this key demographic — which supported the Lib Dems more than any age group in 2010 — cannot be relied upon to support the party in significant numbers.
This change is likely to make it harder to rebuild the party after 2015. The Lib Dems will be the only party to lose first- time voters between 2010 and next year while all the others