Goalkeeper flaw found in science of penalties

Penalty takers could predict which way the goalkeeper is likely to dive on the next kick
Penalty takers could predict which way the goalkeeper is likely to dive on the next kick
BRADLEY ORMESHER/THE TIMES

England cunningly avoided the heartbreak of a World Cup penalty shoot-out this year by being too mediocre to make the knockout stages. Yet scientists say that next time English takers should look out for goalkeepers behaving like gamblers between the posts.

The “gambler’s fallacy” describes the mistaken belief that a series of similar outcomes will be followed by the opposite outcome, such as believing that a flipped coin is more likely to come up tails after a series of heads.

Researchers studied every World Cup and European Championship shoot-out between 1976 and 2012 and found that goalkeepers display similar behaviour, choosing to dive in the opposite direction after a series of kicks to one side of the goal.

The scientists at University College London (UCL)